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Situation Room

Name: VoteTide live election data
Creator: VoteTide
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

The stories that can move Washington and Wall Street, on one screen: war, the border, prices, AI and the spending fight, next to the market gauges that react first. Every number updates from its source on its own. Our view, from the right, is in the boxes marked “Our take.”

Live Updated Nov 5, 4:21 PM EST · updates on its own every few minutes

Market mood

Fear or greed?

17 Extreme fear

A week ago: 47 (neutral) · A month ago: 67 (greed)

Volatility1VIX at 28.3, higher than 99% of the past year
Stock momentum34S&P 500 3.1% below its 125-day average
Safe-haven demand31Stocks trailed gold by 3.9 pts over 20 trading days
Junk bond demand3High-yield spread 3.32 pts, wider than 97% of the past year

0 is extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. VoteTide's own gauge, built from public market data; how it works.

Power

Who runs Washington

White HouseRepublican through Jan. 20, 2029
SenateNow: RepublicansFrom Jan. 3: Democrats (55 D, 44 R, 1 undecided; 51 for a majority)
HouseNow: RepublicansFrom Jan. 3: Democrats (254 D, 168 R, 13 undecided; 218 for a majority, includes leads)

Majorities for the new Congress come from our live 2026 results.

Clocks

34dNext Fed rate decision, Dec 9, 2026. The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee announces at 2 p.m. Eastern. More
36dGovernment funding runs out, Dec 11, 2026. Unless Congress passes another spending bill or stopgap. Bills that pass appear under "What Washington did" below. Government Executive, Sep. 1
59dNew Congress sworn in, Jan 3, 2027. The 2026 winners take their seats at noon, as the Constitution's 20th Amendment sets. More
807dNext presidential inauguration, Jan 20, 2029. After the 2028 election. More

What prediction markets expect

Gauges

VIX fear gauge

28.3+70.62% today

Elevated

Jul 2026 – Nov 2026

How much the S&P 500 is expected to swing over the next month. Above 30 has meant real stress.

Cboe VIX · Nov 5, 2026

S&P 500

7,354−4.36% today

5.9% off its high

Jul 2026 – Nov 2026

Measured against its highest close in the past year.

S&P 500 · Nov 5, 2026

Crude oil

$90.54+2.75% today

Up 1% in a month

Jul 2026 – Nov 2026

WTI, dollars a barrel. The fastest way a Middle East war reaches American wallets.

WTI crude · Nov 5, 2026

Gold

$4,098+0.60% today

Up 3% in a year

Jul 2026 – Nov 2026

Dollars an ounce. Money runs to gold when investors fear war, inflation or a weaker dollar.

Gold futures · Nov 5, 2026

10-year Treasury yield

4.84%−0.06 today

High

Jul 2026 – Nov 2026

What Washington pays to borrow for ten years. It sets the tone for mortgage and car-loan rates.

10-year yield · Nov 5, 2026

Yield curve (10y − 2y)

+0.32 pts

Normal

Feb 2026 – Nov 2026

When short-term rates top long-term ones (inverted), a recession has often followed within two years.

Treasury, via FRED · Nov 4, 2026

Junk bond spread

3.32 pts

Tight (confident)

Feb 2026 – Nov 2026

Extra interest risky companies pay over Treasurys. It widens fast when lenders get scared.

ICE BofA, via FRED · Nov 4, 2026

Bitcoin

$75,759+0.00% today

Trades around the clock, so it often moves first on weekend news.

BTC-USD · Nov 5, 2026

U.S. dollar index

101.62+0.11% today

The dollar against six major currencies. A falling dollar raises import prices.

Dollar index · Nov 5, 2026

Presidential approval

−26

Apr 2026 – Oct 2026

net approval (36% approve, 62% disapprove)

Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Oct 6, 2026

War

The Iran war

Crude oil$90.54+2.75% todayWTI, dollars a barrel. The fastest way a Middle East war reaches American wallets. Source

Gas, national average$4.15a gallon of regular, national average (Nov 2, 2026). Down $0.20 from a month earlier. Source

The United States and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect in April, followed by further rounds of strikes and retaliation over the summer.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the route for roughly a fifth of the world's oil, has been heavily disrupted, which is why oil and gasoline prices are part of this story at home.

Background as of Nov 4, 2026, reviewed weekly. Sources: GlobalSecurity.org operations log · Al Jazeera, Aug 31 · Al Jazeera, Oct 4 · EIA on Hormuz

What prediction markets expect

Follow it yourself: Defense Department releases · EIA oil market updates · Full Iran tracker

Border

Immigration and the border

What prediction markets expect

Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?24%

Follow it yourself: CBP border encounter statistics · ICE enforcement statistics · DHS press releases

Cost of living

Inflation and prices

Inflation, past year3.7%prices vs. a year earlier (September). Faster than the month before (3.4%). Source

30-year mortgage rate7.18%30-year fixed mortgage (Nov 5, 2026). Down 0.22 pts from a month earlier. Source

Follow it yourself: BLS consumer price index · AAA gas prices by state · Prices on the issues tracker

Tech

Artificial intelligence

Nvidia$181.60−9.26% todayThe chipmaker at the center of the AI build-out. Down 7% in a year. Source

Microsoft$535.93−3.58% todayOne of the biggest spenders on AI data centers. Source

What prediction markets expect

Follow it yourself: AI bills in Congress · Commerce Dept. AI standards (NIST)

Economy

Jobs and recession risk

Unemployment rate4.2%unemployment rate (September). −0.2 pts vs. a year earlier. Source

Yield curve (10y − 2y)+0.32 ptsWhen short-term rates top long-term ones (inverted), a recession has often followed within two years. Source

What prediction markets expect

Follow it yourself: BLS jobs report · Weekly jobless claims · Markets and the economy

Rivals

China, Taiwan and trade

What prediction markets expect

Follow it yourself: U.S. Trade Representative

War

Russia and Ukraine

What prediction markets expect

Follow it yourself: State Department press releases

What Washington did

Straight from the official record: the Federal Register and Congress.gov. Newest first.

Watch it yourself

White House presidential actions Orders, proclamations and memoranda as they are signed
House floor, live What the House is voting on today
Senate floor activity The Senate's daily floor log
Congress.gov Every bill, vote and committee report
Federal Register New rules and executive orders, officially published
CBO cost estimates What bills would cost, from Congress's budget scorekeeper
Federal Reserve meeting calendar Rate decision dates and statements
Defense Department releases Official statements on military operations
Homeland Security news Border and immigration enforcement announcements

How this page works

Every number is read from its source when the page rebuilds, every few minutes: stock, oil, gold and Bitcoin prices from Yahoo Finance (about 15 minutes delayed), bond and economic data from the St. Louis Fed's FRED, polls via VoteHub, odds from Polymarket, and government actions from the Federal Register and Congress.gov.
The market mood gauge averages four signals, each scored 0 to 100: the VIX compared with its past year, the S&P 500 against its 125-day average, stocks against gold over 20 trading days, and the junk bond spread compared with its past year. It follows the same idea as other well-known fear-and-greed gauges, with our own inputs, and it is not affiliated with any of them.
Band labels such as “Elevated” or “Inverted” are fixed thresholds applied to the live number, the same way every time.
Headlines come from a fixed list of outlets, mostly right of center plus the wire services. Market prices are traders' bets, not facts.
“Our take” is opinion from VoteTide's conservative point of view. It is always labelled and never changes a number. Our perspective.

More: Issues tracker · Markets and politics · 2028 forecast

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Situation Room

Fear or greed?

Who runs Washington

Clocks

What prediction markets expect

Gauges

What prediction markets expect

What prediction markets expect

What prediction markets expect

What prediction markets expect

What prediction markets expect

What prediction markets expect

What Washington did

The President

Congress

Major agency rules

Watch it yourself

How this page works

Discussion