2028 Presidential Election › Primaries
Race for the 2028 nominations
Live odds for every Democratic and Republican contender, blended from Kalshi and Polymarket. These are market prices: what traders think will happen, not polls and not an endorsement.
Democratic nomination
- 1Jon Ossoff23%Kalshi 22% · Polymarket 24%
- 2Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%Kalshi 14% · Polymarket 18%
- 3Gavin Newsom14%Kalshi 14% · Polymarket 15%
- 4Pete Buttigieg5%Kalshi 5% · Polymarket 4%
- 5Josh Shapiro4%Kalshi 4% · Polymarket 5%
- 6Andy Beshear4%Kalshi 5% · Polymarket 4%
- 7Kamala Harris4%Kalshi 4% · Polymarket 3%
- 8James Talarico3%Kalshi 4% · Polymarket 2%
- 9Raphael Warnock2%Kalshi 2% · Polymarket 2%
- 10Abdul El-Sayed2%Kalshi 2%
- 11Mark Kelly2%Kalshi 2% · Polymarket 2%
- 12Wes Moore2%Kalshi 2% · Polymarket 2%
Markets: Kalshi · Polymarket
Republican nomination
- 1J.D. Vance29%Kalshi 28% · Polymarket 31%
- 2Robert F. Kennedy Jr.25%Kalshi <1% · Polymarket 49%
- 3Marco Rubio22%Kalshi 25% · Polymarket 20%
- 4Ron DeSantis11%Kalshi 12% · Polymarket 11%
- 5Tucker Carlson3%Kalshi 3% · Polymarket 3%
- 6Ted Cruz3%Kalshi 3% · Polymarket 3%
- 7Donald J. Trump Jr.3%Kalshi 4% · Polymarket 2%
- 8Joe Kent2%Kalshi 5% · Polymarket <1%
- 9Brian Kemp2%Kalshi 3% · Polymarket 1%
- 10Thomas Massie1%Kalshi 1% · Polymarket 2%
- 11Glenn Youngkin1%Kalshi 2% · Polymarket 1%
- 12Ivanka Trump1%Kalshi <1% · Polymarket 1%
Markets: Kalshi · Polymarket
Primary calendar
Early dates are set by party rules and state law and can still move. Full election calendar · Add to your calendar
- Jan 3in 425 daysIowa Republican caucusesRepublicansTentative
The RNC kept Iowa first on its 2028 calendar. Date is tentative, based on state law and where other contests land.
- Jan 11in 433 daysNew Hampshire primary (Republicans)RepublicansTentative
New Hampshire's state-run primary. Tentative: state law lets the secretary of state move it to stay first among primaries.
- Jan 22in 444 daysSouth Carolina Democratic primaryDemocratsTentative
The DNC's 2028 calendar puts South Carolina first, followed by Nevada.
- Feb 1in 454 daysNevada presidential primaryTentative
Second on the Democratic calendar.
- Feb 8in 461 daysNew Hampshire Democratic primaryDemocratsTentative
Party-run date under the DNC calendar. New Mexico (Feb. 15), Michigan (Feb. 22) and Virginia follow later in February.
- Mar 7in 489 daysSuper TuesdayTentative
The biggest day of the primary season: about 15 states vote, including California, Texas, North Carolina, Massachusetts and Virginia.
Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 Democratic nomination?
Prediction markets currently give Jon Ossoff about a 23% chance, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16%.
Who is favored to win the 2028 Republican nomination?
Prediction markets currently give J.D. Vance about a 29% chance, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 25%.
When do the 2028 primaries start?
The first contest on the current calendar is the Iowa Republican caucuses on January 3, 2028 (tentative). Democrats moved South Carolina to the front of their calendar; Republicans kept Iowa first.
Updated every 5 minutes. Want the general election? See the 2028 electoral map and make your own call with the “My map” layer.