The Minnesota Senate Election 2026 is on November 3, 2026. Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) faces Republican Michele Tafoya. The seat is currently held by Democrats and is open this year. VoteTide rates the race Likely D. Prediction markets give Peggy Flanagan a 100% chance of winning. Peggy Flanagan has won with 53.7% and about 100% counted. The last polls in Minnesota close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
Margaret Ann Hartmann Flanagan (Ojibwe: Gizhiiwewidamookwe; born September 22, 1979) is an American politician and Ojibwe activist who is the United States senator-elect from Minnesota. She has served since 2019 as the 50th lieutenant governor of Minnesota.
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Rating: Likely D
What's at stake
For the country
This seat is held by Democrats. Losing it would make the path to a majority harder: they would then need 5 flips elsewhere.
For Republicans it is a pick-up chance that would add a cushion to their majority.
Senate control decides which judges and cabinet nominees are confirmed and whether the President's bills can pass.
For Minnesota
Senators vote on every federal law, confirm Supreme Court justices, federal judges and cabinet members, and ratify treaties. Terms last six years.
It is an open seat, so there is no incumbent advantage this year.
Michele Tafoya
Supporters say a Republican senator would keep taxes low and protect recent tax cuts.
They argue for tighter border security and stricter immigration enforcement.
They favour expanding domestic energy production and cutting federal regulation.
Peggy Flanagan
Supporters say a Democratic senator would push to lower health-care costs and protect the Affordable Care Act.
They argue for restoring federal abortion protections and expanding voting access.
They favour raising taxes on the highest earners and corporations to fund programs.
Arguments are summarised at party level from each side's stated priorities, not quotes from the candidates.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running in the Minnesota Senate Election 2026?
Peggy Flanagan (D), Michele Tafoya (R).
Who is favored to win the Minnesota senate race?
Prediction markets give Peggy Flanagan a 100% chance. VoteTide's rating is Likely D.
When do polls close in Minnesota?
On November 3, 2026, the last polls in Minnesota close at 9 p.m. Eastern. The first results usually appear within an hour.
Where do these Minnesota results come from?
Vote counts come from official election sources as they are published (and from the AP when configured). Odds come from Kalshi and Polymarket, and polls from public polling tables. The page refreshes every minute.
Minnesota at a glance
2024 president: Harris +4.2 (3,240,916 votes)
2020 president: Biden +7.1 (3,277,171 votes)
Ballots cast before Election Day equal 41% of the 2024 total.
